markets · · seekingalpha.com
TLT: The Refunding Could Break The Bond Bear, Again
I rate iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF a BUY, citing an unsustainably high term premium and a likely catalyst from the upcoming Treasury refunding. TLT's sell-off is driven by real yields and uncertainty, not inflation expectations, with the term premium at its highest since 2010. The November 4 Treasury refunding could trigger a reversal, as seen in 2023, especially if coupon sizes remain unchanged and buybacks increase.
I rate iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF a BUY, citing an unsustainably high term premium and a likely catalyst from the upcoming Treasury refunding. TLT's sell-off is driven by real yields and uncertainty, not inflation expectations, with the term premium at its highest since 2010. The November 4 Treasury refunding could trigger a reversal, as seen in 2023, especially if coupon sizes remain unchanged and buybacks increase.
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